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The US steel market experienced a notable fluctuation in February 2025, as initial gains in imports were quickly reversed. This shift occurred after US steel imports surged unexpectedly in January, marking a near three-year high. However, February indicators suggest that these gains have been largely erased, signaling a return to previous import levels. The dynamics of US steel imports reflect broader global steel industry trends, including shifts in global supply chains and ongoing trade policies.
In January, US steel imports rose by a significant 44% month over month, reaching approximately 3.08 million short tons (st), according to data from the US Commerce Department[2]. This uptrend was primarily driven by import volumes from key countries such as Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. These four nations combined accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total steel imported during that month, with Canada leading at 21% of total imports.
However, the February data presents a stark contrast. Preliminary figures for February indicate a sharp decline in steel imports, with estimates around 2.14 million short tons through early March 2025[2]. This drop aligns with the low levels observed towards the end of 2024, suggesting that January's surge was an anomaly rather than a lasting trend.
Several factors contribute to the fluctuations in US steel imports, including global supply chain dynamics, trade policies, and economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
The US has implemented various trade policies to protect its domestic steel industry. Tariffs and other measures aim to counter unfair trade practices while supporting American steel production. These policies can affect import volumes and lead to circumvention attempts, such as importing semi-finished products for further processing[1].
The ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded its first expansion in January 2025 after 26 months of contraction, signaling a potential uptick in domestic production demand[1]. This increased manufacturing activity could influence steel import trends by either increasing demand for foreign supplies or fostering domestic production growth.
Global events and supply chain shifts can significantly impact US steel imports. For instance, the European Commission's plans to reduce tariff-free steel imports into the EU may influence global trade flows and prices[2].
US steel imports vary widely across different product categories, including flat steel, semi-finished products, and others.
Flat steel products, such as hot-rolled coils and sheets, are a major component of US steel imports. In 2024, flat steel accounted for about 41% of all US steel imports[3]. Recent data shows that flat-rolled imports rose marginally in January but are expected to decline in February, reflecting broader import trends[2].
Semi-finished steel imports experienced a substantial rebound in January, with volumes increasing by 152% from December to January[2]. However, February saw a decline in these imports, indicating volatility in supply chains.
Imports of long products and pipe & tube saw significant increases in January, driven by demand for construction and infrastructure projects. January imports rose by 63% for long products and 41% for pipe & tube, but February projections indicate these gains will be largely erased[2].
The fluctuations in steel imports can affect the overall US steel market in several ways:
The US steel import market is highly dynamic, with recent trends highlighting the impact of global events and policy changes on supply chains. As trade dynamics and economic indicators evolve, stakeholders in the US steel sector must remain vigilant about these shifts to navigate the complex market environment effectively. The current reversal in steel imports in February after a brief surge could signal a return to more stable, albeit low, levels of importation, mirroring the end-of-year trends in 2024.
