Title: Friday, April 4 Severe Weather Forecast: High Risk of Tornadoes, Large Hail, and Flash Flooding Across Central U.S.

Overview of Today’s Severe Weather Threat

Friday, April 4, 2025, is shaping up to be an extremely dangerous day for severe weather across a broad swath of the central United States. Meteorologists are warning residents from central Texas through the ArkLaTex region and into the lower Ohio Valley to brace for multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms with a high risk of tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and significant flash flooding.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms, highlighting the heightened potential for strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western Arkansas through southeast Missouri[3]. This day’s weather pattern combines moist, unstable air, strong wind shear, and a slow-moving frontal system, creating the ideal environment for dangerous supercell thunderstorms.

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Severe Weather Hotspots and Risks

ArkLaTex to Lower Ohio Valley: Tornado and Large Hail Threat

• The greatest tornado risk is concentrated from the ArkLaTex area (where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas meet), stretching northeastward through western Arkansas and into southeast Missouri.
• Conditions are favorable for strong EF2 to EF3 tornadoes due to a moist, unstable atmosphere with high storm-relative helicity (near or above 300 m²/s²) and strong low-level wind shear[3].
• Large hail, with hailstones possibly reaching baseball size, and damaging straight-line winds will accompany the tornado threat.
• Training storms along the stationary and slowly moving frontal boundary could also lead to localized flooding.

Central and Northern Texas: Evening Elevated Severe Storms

• After dark, a broad area of elevated convection is expected from west Texas northward toward the Red River.
• These elevated supercells pose a significant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts as they track northward[3].

Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley: Continuing Severe Weather into Night

• The frontal zone is expected to shift northward into the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys with ongoing thunderstorm clusters persisting into the evening.
• Damaging winds and large hail remain concerns in these areas, as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes.

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Flood and Flash Flood Risks

In addition to tornadic threats, a catastrophic risk for flash flooding is present due to training storms and saturated soils in many areas[4]. The stationary nature of storm clusters means excessive rainfall rates will be possible, overwhelming drainage systems and potentially leading to rapid river rises and urban flooding situations.

Residents in flood-prone areas are urged to monitor local alerts carefully and be prepared to take quick action if flash flood warnings are issued.

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Weather Dynamics Driving the Severe Outbreak

• An amplified midlevel trough over the southwestern U.S. is moving slowly eastward, providing a strong large-scale lift mechanism.
• A baroclinic zone (a sharp temperature gradient) is advancing northward across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and Kentucky, serving as a focal point for thunderstorm initiation.
• Surface dewpoints are in the low 70s °F, fueling a very moist warm sector.
• Midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 °C/km and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values of 2000-3000 J/kg support vigorous updrafts necessary for supercell formation[3].
• Multi-layer wind shear includes veering winds with height and increasing speed with altitude, generating storm rotation and tornado potential.

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What to Expect Throughout Friday

Timing and Intensity

• Severe weather will begin in the early to mid-afternoon hours, with storm development concentrated along the advancing frontal boundary.
• The peak tornado threat will likely occur in the late afternoon to evening hours, especially between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time.
• Severe thunderstorms will continue after dark, shifting slowly northeastward with persistent threats of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

Specific Hazards

• Tornadoes: Potential for multiple strong tornadoes, especially near and southeast of the front in Arkansas and Missouri.
• Large Hail: Hailstones up to baseball size expected, especially in supercell thunderstorms.
• Damaging Winds: Widespread wind gusts capable of causing structural damage and downing trees and power lines.
• Flash Flooding: Heavy rain from repeated storm clusters may cause flash flooding in vulnerable regions.

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Safety Tips and Preparedness

Residents in the affected areas should take the following precautions:

• Stay Informed: Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local TV/radio, and trusted weather apps for real-time updates and emergency alerts.
• Have a Safety Plan: Identify a safe shelter location, such as a basement or interior room away from windows.
• Emergency Kit: Prepare with water, flashlights, batteries, important documents, and medications.
• Avoid Travel: If severe weather warnings are in effect, avoid unnecessary travel.
• Be Ready to Act: Tornado warnings may be issued with little lead time, so be prepared to take shelter immediately.

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The Broader Outlook: Severe Weather Continues Into Weekend

While the main severe weather threat shifts eastward after Friday, the pattern of unstable air and periodic upper-level disturbances will sustain isolated to scattered severe storm potential into the weekend, especially across the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley regions[2].

Meteorologists warn that while the moderate risk today marks a particularly dangerous period, vigilance should continue in the coming days due to the ongoing volatile spring weather pattern.

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Conclusion

Friday, April 4, 2025, heralds a significant severe weather outbreak, particularly for residents across central Texas, the ArkLaTex, and the lower Ohio Valley. The combination of strong wind shear, moist and unstable air, and a slowly advancing frontal boundary creates ideal conditions for dangerous tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.

Preparedness and awareness remain paramount as multiple threats unfold throughout the day and into the night. Stay tuned to official weather sources for continuous updates and heed all warnings and safety instructions to protect life and property during this active severe weather event.

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This article aims to provide comprehensive and actionable information to keep affected communities safe and informed during this serious severe weather event.