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As the global economic landscape continues to shift under the weight of geopolitical tensions, financial services leaders are facing unprecedented challenges. A recent survey by KPMG highlights a marked decline in confidence among these leaders, primarily due to growing geopolitical uncertainty. Despite optimism about future growth, the sector is grappling with the realities of a volatile world order.
The current global environment is characterized by trade protectionism, economic fragmentation, and technological competition. The resurgence of protectionist policies, exemplified by increased tariffs and trade interventions, signals a structural shift in global commerce. This has led to a significant rise in "harmful" trade measures, with over 3,000 such interventions in 2024 alone, compared to just 500 a decade earlier[1]. As a result, companies are forced to recalibrate their strategic decisions regarding operational locations, supply chains, and technology investments[3].
The financial services sector, in particular, is acutely affected by these geopolitical shifts. Rising geopolitical risks, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties such as inflation and interest rate fluctuations, are creating a challenging environment for financial institutions:
Inflation Concerns: The IMF projects global inflation to remain high, with averages expected to be 5.9% by the end of 2024 and 4.5% in 2025[2]. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, which negatively impact business confidence by raising borrowing costs, especially in high-risk investments[2].
Interest Rate Uncertainty: Central banks' wait-and-see approach to monetary policy adds to the uncertainty, affecting growth prospects and debt management both at the household and sovereign levels[2].
Geopolitical Tensions: Persistent conflicts and geopolitical rivalries, notably in regions like Ukraine and Gaza, contribute to an inflationary environment[2]. This shifts investment focus from efficiency to resilience, affecting long-term growth prospects.
KPMG's latest survey reveals that confidence in profitability among financial services leaders has dipped, despite optimism about overall business growth. The survey highlights several key insights:
Confidence Levels: While around nine out of ten leaders remain positive about business growth in Q2 2025, confidence in profitability fell by five percentage points compared to Q1[5].
Risk Management Investments: More than 60% of leaders are investing more in risk-proofing, with an average of 8% of total revenues dedicated to managing geopolitical risks this year. This figure is expected to rise to 10% by 2030, with over a quarter anticipating investments exceeding 15%[5].
Challenges and Concerns: Inflation pressures, interest rates, and cost pressures top the list of challenges, but geopolitical risks have emerged as a significant concern, cited by almost 30% of leaders[5].
Financial services firms can adopt several strategies to manage geopolitical risks effectively:
AI Governance: Developing strategic frameworks that address both technical and ethical risks of AI is crucial. This includes ensuring cybersecurity and eliminating bias in AI models[2].
Global AI Strategies: Implementing AI in a way that aligns with international standards and ethical considerations can help financial services firms leverage AI for growth while minimizing geopolitical backlash[2].
Adapting to Economic Trends: Firms can exploit opportunities arising from strategic competition trends and domestic incentive programs by pivoting their investment strategies quickly[2].
Future-Proofing: Screening for relevant geopolitical information, defining response scenarios, and reinforcing risk management capabilities can help firms stay resilient[2].
The geopolitical landscape is evolving rapidly, with profound implications for global businesses. Financial services leaders must prioritize geopolitical risk management to navigate this complex environment effectively. By investing in strategic planning, embracing technological advancements responsibly, and adapting to shifting economic and regulatory frameworks, firms can transform geopolitical challenges into opportunities for growth.
In this volatile global environment, the ability to anticipate and respond to geopolitical shifts will be crucial. As Karim Haji, Global and UK Head of Financial Services at KPMG, noted, "Volatility is putting pressure on revenues, and we can expect this to be a long-term trend"[5]. Yet, with the right strategies in place, financial services firms can not only mitigate risks but also seize new opportunities emerging from the changing geopolitical landscape.
