Introduction

The European Union (EU) is facing a profound challenge, often referred to as the "Orbán problem," named after Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. His policies have consistently clashed with EU values, leading to a situation where the EU must act decisively to protect its integrity and effectiveness. Recently, Orbán's actions have become more pronounced, especially in foreign policy issues like support for Ukraine and adherence to democratic principles.

The Problem with Orbán

Viktor Orbán has been in power since 2010 and has increasingly leaned towards authoritarian governance, eroding democratic norms and the rule of law in Hungary. The European Parliament has classified Hungary as an "electoral autocracy," highlighting the erosion of democratic standards. Orbán's government has systematically attacked civil rights, media freedom, and judicial independence, causing concern both domestically and within the EU.

Orbán's pro-Russian stance has also become a thorn in the EU's side, particularly during the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. His refusal to support key EU policies, such as military aid to Ukraine, has forced other EU leaders to bypass him, adopting decisions without Hungary's consent. This has symbolic consequences but also indicates a deeper systemic issue within the EU's decision-making processes.

Recent Actions and Confrontations

• European Council Summits: Orbán blocked key conclusions at recent EU summits, including those on Ukraine aid and peace negotiations. Leaders had to adopt these measures without Hungary's consent, illustrating the ongoing tension between Budapest and Brussels.
• Legal Reforms: Orbán's government has proposed amendments to the Hungarian constitution, potentially allowing for the revocation of citizenship for dual citizens deemed to be endangering national security.
• Media Crackdown: Orbán has vowed to dismantle media outlets funded by foreign sources, further tightening control over the press in Hungary.

Potential Solutions

The EU needs to address the Orbán problem through a multi-step approach:

1. Broad Economic Leverage

• Freezing Funds: The EU currently holds back around €22 billion in funds due to Hungary's rule of law breaches. These funds should remain frozen until Orbán's government addresses the violations comprehensively. Future long-term EU budget allocations should be contingent on reforms.
• Financial Pressure: Withholding funds impacts Hungary significantly, as it cannot easily offset these losses through market borrowing. This financial pressure could push Orbán towards compliance.

2. Political Isolation

• Coalitions of the Willing: EU members could proceed with policy initiatives without Hungary, creating "coalitions of the willing" for projects like defense cooperation. This approach would allow progress on key issues while isolating Hungary politically.
• Differentiated Integration: The EU has a history of differentiated integration, where member states opt-in or out of certain policies. This model could be used to bypass Hungary on specific issues without fragmenting the Union.

3. Voting Rights Suspension

• Rule of Law Mechanisms: The EU should consider suspending Hungary's voting rights in areas where the rule of law is breached. This measure would emphasize the seriousness of the situation and encourage reforms.

Conclusion

The EU cannot continue to operate effectively with Orbán's constant vetoes and undermining of EU policies. While expelling Hungary is not a viable option, the EU must use its existing powers to ensure that the values of democracy and the rule of law are upheld. By leveraging economic incentives, isolating Orbán politically, and considering voting rights suspensions, the EU can address the Orbán problem and maintain its unity and effectiveness.

Current Context

Europe is witnessing a paradigm shift in how it handles internal dissent. With the Russian-Ukrainian conflict drawing more nations into European politics, the EU needs a cohesive policy to address foreign and security issues. Orbán's stance on Ukraine, coupled with his domestic policies, poses a significant challenge to this cohesion.

Orbán's recent speeches have further fueled tensions between Hungary and the EU, citing conspiratorial theories about foreign influence and echoing nationalist rhetoric. This not only strains EU-Hungary relations but also reflects a broader trend of illiberal democracies in Eastern Europe.

As the EU navigates this complex landscape, its response to Orbán will set a precedent for how it handles similar challenges in the future. Whether through economic leverage, political isolation, or reforms within Hungary, the EU's approach will define its ability to defend its values and maintain unity in the face of rising nationalism.

Key Takeaways

• Decentralized Action: The EU should consider working around Hungary on specific policies.
• Rule of Law Focus: Economic incentives should be tied to improvements in democratic governance.
• EU Unity: The EU must balance firmness with inclusivity to maintain unity among its member states.

In conclusion, the EU's "Orbán problem" is a critical challenge that demands a comprehensive strategy, focusing on economic incentives, political isolation, and rule of law mechanisms. The EU's response will shape its future as a cohesive entity capable of defending democracy and unity.