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Energy
The global oil market is undergoing significant shifts, with OPEC+ facing unprecedented challenges in maintaining control over oil prices. Recent reports by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) highlight that the weakening global demand, coupled with a surge in non-OPEC supplies—led by the United States—is eroding OPEC+’s ability to dictate prices. The change in the U.S. administration has further diminished OPEC+ influence, positioning the U.S. as a key player in setting oil prices. This article delves into the complexities of the current oil market, focusing on the impact of geopolitical factors and the rising competition from non-OPEC producers.
Global oil demand has been under pressure, primarily due to economic slowdowns in major consuming countries like China and the United States. China's economic recovery has been slower than expected, while the U.S. is grappling with high interest rates and a slowing job market, which have dampened oil consumption[3]. This weakened demand environment forces OPEC+ to adjust its production strategies, making it difficult for the alliance to stabilize prices.
The growth in non-OPEC oil supplies, particularly from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, has significantly reduced OPEC+’s market share. The U.S. has emerged as a major oil producer, with shale oil production continuing to increase, thereby limiting OPEC+’s ability to manipulate prices through supply adjustments[3].
The recent change in the U.S. administration, with Donald Trump returning to power, introduces additional uncertainties into the global oil landscape. Trump's past policies, including sanctions on Iran, have shaped global oil supplies, and there are expectations that he may enforce stricter sanctions again[1][4]. This could impact Iranian oil exports and create opportunities for other OPEC+ members to regain market share, albeit with risks of further price volatility.
Despite these challenges, OPEC+ continues to adjust its production strategies to stabilize the market. Recent decisions include gradually increasing oil output by 2.2 million barrels per day over 18 months, starting from April 2025[4]. However, this strategy poses risks as it may lead to further price drops if demand does not recover.
The oil market in 2025 is characterized by OPEC+’s diminishing control over prices due to weakening global demand and the rise of non-OPEC supplies. The shift in U.S. policies under the new administration adds another layer of complexity, potentially altering the dynamics of global oil trade. As the market navigates these challenges, OPEC+ must balance its production cuts with the need to maintain market share in a rapidly changing landscape.
