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Consumer Discretionary
The Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn on March 26, 2025, as investors engaged in profit-booking due to negative Asian cues and the looming US tariffs on imported goods. The NSE Nifty50, which had been on a winning streak, faced a setback, closing at 23,486.85, down by 181 points from its previous close[3][4]. Despite these challenges, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to show optimism with substantial buying activity, which could stabilize the market in the coming weeks[5].
The US is set to impose reciprocal tariffs from April 2, which has been a major concern for investors worldwide. These tariffs could impact sectors with significant US exposure, including pharmaceuticals and IT[4]. The uncertainty around the severity of these tariffs has led to increased volatility in the global markets.
Profit booking was evident across most sectoral indices, with Nifty PSU Bank, IT, Financial Services, Healthcare, Realty, and Oil & Gas indices experiencing notable declines[3][4]. The broader market indices, including the BSE Midcap and Smallcap, also faced losses[2]. However, some stocks like IndusInd Bank and Trent managed to buck the trend, ending as top gainers[4].
Market experts highlight 23,400 as a crucial support level for the Nifty. If this level holds, it could potentially trigger a bounce back to around 23,500, which is currently acting as a resistance[3]. Analysts caution that the market could face further weakness if it fails to maintain this support level.
Despite the volatility, FIIs have remained bullish, investing significantly in the Indian market. Over the last few trading sessions, FIIs have purchased stock worth thousands of crores, indicating their confidence in the Indian economy's growth prospects[5].
Technically, the Nifty has broken its 100-Day Simple Moving Average (100-DSMA), which currently stands near 23,500 and will act as an immediate hurdle[3]. On the downside, the 100-Day Exponential Moving Average (100-DEMA) is positioned near 23,390, providing key support[3]. Analysts expect short-term volatility due to the upcoming Future and Options (F&O) expiry, advising traders to remain cautious[3].
Market experts believe that if the US tariffs are less stringent than anticipated or if there is a positive bilateral agreement between the US and India, it could lead to a recovery in the market[5]. Additionally, India's improving macroeconomic indicators and the possibility of a rate cut by the RBI could provide a boost to stock markets in the coming months[4].
Several factors will influence the Indian stock market in the near future:
While the current market scenario is marked by volatility and profit booking, the significant presence of FIIs and positive domestic economic indicators provide a backdrop for potential stability and growth. If the Nifty can hold its support levels and FIIs continue to invest, the market might see a recovery in the near future. However, the path ahead remains challenging, with global uncertainties and upcoming tariff decisions likely to influence market trends significantly.
