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The Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, a critical component of India's economy, faced significant challenges in 2024 due to rising input costs, high food inflation, and a subsequent slowdown in urban demand. However, as we step into 2025, industry leaders are cautiously optimistic about a recovery in consumption growth, particularly in urban markets. This article delves into the factors driving this revival and the strategies FMCG companies are adopting to adapt to changing consumer behavior.
In 2024, the FMCG industry encountered substantial headwinds due to escalating commodity prices such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa, and wheat. These cost increases led companies to either raise prices by 3 to 5 percent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes to maintain competitive pricing. Despite these challenges, rural demand remained robust, while urban consumption was subdued, impacted by high discretionary spending cuts due to inflation[1][3].
Several factors are anticipated to drive the recovery in urban demand:
Premiumisation has emerged as a key strategy for FMCG companies seeking to revive urban demand. By offering enhanced quality products, unique features, and superior experiences, companies aim to attract consumers willing to pay extra. Categories like liquid beauty products, western snacks, and instant coffee are gaining traction as consumers seek to upgrade their lifestyles[4].
Quick commerce platforms have revolutionized the way urban consumers shop for groceries. Offering speed and convenience, these platforms are particularly popular among younger generations and are projected to be a significant contributor to consumption growth by 2030[3].
While urban demand is expected to recover, rural markets have been a steady source of growth for the FMCG sector. The favorable monsoon season and government initiatives have contributed to a gradual recovery in rural consumption. Companies with strong rural distribution networks have benefited significantly from this trend[2][5].
As the FMCG industry navigates its way through the challenges of 2024, the signs of recovery in urban demand offer a promising outlook for 2025. With premiumisation, quick commerce, and supportive government policies driving growth, companies are poised to capitalize on emerging trends. The anticipation of urban demand recovery, alongside the continued strength of rural markets, positions the FMCG sector for a robust rebound in the coming year.