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Consumer Discretionary
Ireland, known for its vibrant culture and stunning landscapes, is facing a significant challenge in the form of rising costs of living. As inflation, though subsiding, continues to impact daily life, consumers are bracing themselves for increased prices across various sectors. The warning of a €5 latte by the end of the year may not be as far-fetched as it seems, considering the recent trends in price hikes.
Inflation in Ireland has been a pressing issue. After reaching a peak of 9.2% in October 2022, it has gradually decreased, with the inflation rate in February 2025 standing at 1.8%[2]. However, certain sectors continue to see significant price rises, notably restaurants and hotels, where prices have increased by 3.9% over the past year[4]. This trend suggests that consumers are likely to face higher costs when dining out or buying daily beverages like coffee.
The rising costs are not limited to dining out but also affect staple items and services. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% between January 2024 and January 2025, with significant increases in transport and alcoholic beverages[4]. Such increases can lead to a ripple effect, impacting the prices of other goods and services.
Ireland is witnessing a rise in the minimum wage to address the cost of living crisis. The minimum wage is expected to increase to €13.50 per hour from January 1, 2025, as part of Budget 2025 measures[5]. This increase is aimed at enhancing the purchasing power of workers, but it might also contribute to higher prices, as businesses pass on increased labor costs to consumers.
The Irish government plans to introduce a living wage by 2026, which is set at 60% of the median wage, currently around €14.80 per hour[1]. This move aims to ensure a more sustainable standard of living for low-income workers. However, the implementation of these wages could further drive up costs in the short term.
In response to inflation and increased labor costs, businesses are considering various strategies:
Pay Increases: A majority of Irish firms plan to raise pay in 2025, with an average increase of 3.4%[3]. This trend indicates a competitive labor market where businesses must offer better compensation to attract and retain talent.
Headcount Adjustments: While many businesses are raising pay, fewer are planning to increase their workforce. This cautious approach reflects concerns about operating costs and global economic uncertainty[3].
Despite these measures, Ireland faces challenges in strengthening its talent pipeline. Skills shortages persist, and employers must innovate to attract skilled workers. This environment could lead to increased costs for goods and services as businesses vie for top talent.
Given these factors, the prediction of a €5 latte by the end of the year is plausible. High-end coffee shops and cafes may use premium pricing as a strategy to maintain profitability while also reflecting the rising costs of ingredients and labor.
Consumers are likely to feel the pinch of higher prices, especially those relying on daily purchases like coffee. The already strained household budgets may see further pressure, potentially leading to changes in consumer behavior, such as opting for cheaper alternatives or reducing discretionary spending.
To manage the rising costs of living, various measures are being implemented:
The Consumer Price Index provides valuable insights into inflationary trends. For instance, the significant rise in prices for services, excluding mortgage interest, indicates a broad-based increase in living costs[4]. Understanding these trends can help consumers prepare for future price hikes.
The prospect of a €5 latte in Ireland by the end of the year underscores the broader challenge of rising costs of living. While efforts to increase wages and support low-income households are underway, managing inflation remains a key task for policymakers. As consumers navigate these changes, they must be prepared for a shifting economic landscape where prices could continue to climb.